Join Oxford Analytica for an in-depth webinar looking at the challenges of country analysis, with a focus on the hardest country in the world to read: North Korea.

North Korea presents East Asia and the world with unique challenges, having left the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty 21 years ago as it pursued nuclear warheads and advanced missiles, and being the leading practitioner among states of cyber theft and smuggling. For analysts, it presents particular challenges because of the difficulty in understanding political currents in a closed society, with complete state control of the media and no visibility of elite debate. The challenge of analysing North Korea is a step up from 1970s ‘Kremlinology’.

The need for good analysis of North Korea is stronger than ever. The country’s leader, Kim Jong Un, derives his legitimacy from his blood link to North Korea’s founder, Kim Il Sung, his grandfather, and Kim Jong Il, his father – and from adhering to the policy lines that they established. That changed at the start of this year, when Kim announced an about-turn in Pyongyang’s views of South Korea. Previously regarded as a fraternal people held captive by a US puppet government, the South is now regarded as the ‘invariable principal enemy’. What this change means, in practice, is far from clear. Tensions across the DMZ have risen during 2024 and the US presidential election could further stir the regional security environment.

In this webinar, we will examine issues including:

• What we know about decision-making and leadership legitimacy in North Korea
• Possible interpretations and consequences of the change in attitude to the South
• South Korea’s reading of, and response to, the North’s new stance. Is conflict now more likely?
• How Seoul and Pyongyang might engage with the second Trump administration

If you have any questions, please contact us at [email protected].

Panelists:

• Aidan Foster-Carter, Oxford Analytica region head
• Jenny Town, Director of the Korea Program, Stimson Center
• John Everard, former UK ambassador to Pyongyang